Brexit Approved: What Now?

Can this whole mess be stuck back together, it'll likely require more than a few bandages to fix this boo-boo.

Well that was a surprise wasn't it?  At least alot of people around the world and apparently some who voted Leave were surprised that the UK voted to leave the EU last week.  It was a close race with only a few percentage points separating the Leave and Remain sides in the vote.  The question now is, what happens next?

There are of course a few options, and many more than there are time or space to discuss here.  Now that the vote has happened the various ways this could turn out are becoming more clear.

1. As the Referendum is non binding the Government, they could simply choose to ignore the result and not invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty or at least wait a very long time before doing so.  This would be problematic for the government as it would probably not be very popular with the people who voted to leave and would likely also be not very popular with the EU.  It would very much be like crying wolf and seems very unlikely to happen.

2.  Because The UK wants out of the EU but will likely wish to retain access to the common market the Norwegian model is a possibility, as Norway is not part of the EU but benefits from access to the common market like an EU member.  The issue with this solution is that while it would allow things in the UK to change little it won't really answer the demands of the Brexit campaigners.  Norway still has to fund the EU budget, it allows open migration, and it still follows EU laws.  The real major difference is that it has no representatives in Brussels and has no ability to directly influence the laws that affect it.

3.  The UK could also decide to leave the EU fully and use the 2 years under article 50 of the Lisbon treaty to negotiate a series of trade agreements with the different member states of the EU.  This may work well for people inside Britain who voted to leave as it would give the UK an ability to negotiate specific rules and regulations for each country.  The problem for this option is that 2 years isn't a long time to sort out a trade agreement and many of the countries in the EU may not wish to negotiate a specific agreement of the EU.  It also leaves out the issue of immigration and dealing with the many EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens inside the EU.  It's possible that an agreement with the EU on the issue of immigration could be reached separately but it will be difficult in the time allowed.
 
4. The EU and UK could fail to come to any agreements in the 2 years and the UK will leave the EU with no trade deal and no decision on migration.  This is a possible outcome given the recent talk from the EU of giving Britain a bad deal to try and ensure that other countries don't leave.  In this case Britain and the EU may start putting up tariff barriers to limit the import of goods that they feel is harmful to their economies and migrants both in the UK and EU would likely have to apply for individual visas or work permits or move back to their country of origin.  It is difficult to imagine the upheaval such a result would cause.  It's possible that over 2 million people would have to move and the new tariff barriers would increase the prices of goods across the UK and the EU.

5. The EU could also experience the loss of other countries as a result of the success of the Leave vote.  Denmark, Italy, and even parts of Spain and France have strong anti EU groups who may be emboldened by the Brexit.  Should other major countries vote to leave the EU it's possible by the time 2 years is up there may be no EU to Brexit from.

At this time the future is far from certain, the Pound and Stock markets remain in freefall.  Multiple companies, and even Scotland and Northern Ireland are talking loudly about leaving the UK.  It will take some time for things to stabilize and it seems likely that the UK won't really get moving on invoking article 50 until at least the fall.  Hopefully the outcome will be a positive one and we will all look back years from now and wonder what all the fuss was about.