In a Week of Bad News a Little Glimmer of Good News

Well it has been a pretty terrible week in terms of news.  Granted this year hasn't exactly been stellar, but this week seemed to be bringing things to new lows.  However for Edmonton at least there was a bit of a bright spot as the 102 Ave Bridge opened City Bridge Project Page.  The long delayed project Originally scheduled to take 15 months which stretched to 24+ months was finally completed this week much to the joy of the shops in HighStreet and the 124 St business association http://www.124street.ca/.  So it's good news for the stores that managed to survive the drop off in traffic that occurred because of the bridges closure, and even better news that it was completed in the summer so that they have a chance to capitalize on the tourist season.  Best of luck to the stores in the area most of which are independent retailers. I hope they can have one of the best summers ever and that anyone that reads this takes a trip down to the HighStreet shops at 125 St NW and 102 Ave NW in Edmonton and takes a look around and hey maybe even buys something.

Happy Canada Day, 149 years young, Next year is the Big 1-5-0...

Happy Canada Day, even if it is a day late. It was great to be out at Canada Day celebrations and see everyone enjoying themselves.  I loved trying the many types of mini donuts offered and seeing the wide variety of food trucks with food from so many cultures and backgrounds. It's almost as if the food trucks were trying to be as Canadian as possible by representing the diversity of Canada almost unconsciously.
Ahhhh the variety of fireworks and the many bands that play it's wonderful to live in a country that celebrates in such a fun and happy way.  I don't really have much else to say other than I hope you had a happy Canada Day and enjoy the rest of the summer.

Brexit Approved: What Now?

Can this whole mess be stuck back together, it'll likely require more than a few bandages to fix this boo-boo.

Well that was a surprise wasn't it?  At least alot of people around the world and apparently some who voted Leave were surprised that the UK voted to leave the EU last week.  It was a close race with only a few percentage points separating the Leave and Remain sides in the vote.  The question now is, what happens next?

There are of course a few options, and many more than there are time or space to discuss here.  Now that the vote has happened the various ways this could turn out are becoming more clear.

1. As the Referendum is non binding the Government, they could simply choose to ignore the result and not invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty or at least wait a very long time before doing so.  This would be problematic for the government as it would probably not be very popular with the people who voted to leave and would likely also be not very popular with the EU.  It would very much be like crying wolf and seems very unlikely to happen.

2.  Because The UK wants out of the EU but will likely wish to retain access to the common market the Norwegian model is a possibility, as Norway is not part of the EU but benefits from access to the common market like an EU member.  The issue with this solution is that while it would allow things in the UK to change little it won't really answer the demands of the Brexit campaigners.  Norway still has to fund the EU budget, it allows open migration, and it still follows EU laws.  The real major difference is that it has no representatives in Brussels and has no ability to directly influence the laws that affect it.

3.  The UK could also decide to leave the EU fully and use the 2 years under article 50 of the Lisbon treaty to negotiate a series of trade agreements with the different member states of the EU.  This may work well for people inside Britain who voted to leave as it would give the UK an ability to negotiate specific rules and regulations for each country.  The problem for this option is that 2 years isn't a long time to sort out a trade agreement and many of the countries in the EU may not wish to negotiate a specific agreement of the EU.  It also leaves out the issue of immigration and dealing with the many EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens inside the EU.  It's possible that an agreement with the EU on the issue of immigration could be reached separately but it will be difficult in the time allowed.
 
4. The EU and UK could fail to come to any agreements in the 2 years and the UK will leave the EU with no trade deal and no decision on migration.  This is a possible outcome given the recent talk from the EU of giving Britain a bad deal to try and ensure that other countries don't leave.  In this case Britain and the EU may start putting up tariff barriers to limit the import of goods that they feel is harmful to their economies and migrants both in the UK and EU would likely have to apply for individual visas or work permits or move back to their country of origin.  It is difficult to imagine the upheaval such a result would cause.  It's possible that over 2 million people would have to move and the new tariff barriers would increase the prices of goods across the UK and the EU.

5. The EU could also experience the loss of other countries as a result of the success of the Leave vote.  Denmark, Italy, and even parts of Spain and France have strong anti EU groups who may be emboldened by the Brexit.  Should other major countries vote to leave the EU it's possible by the time 2 years is up there may be no EU to Brexit from.

At this time the future is far from certain, the Pound and Stock markets remain in freefall.  Multiple companies, and even Scotland and Northern Ireland are talking loudly about leaving the UK.  It will take some time for things to stabilize and it seems likely that the UK won't really get moving on invoking article 50 until at least the fall.  Hopefully the outcome will be a positive one and we will all look back years from now and wonder what all the fuss was about.

Brexit: Should The UK and the EU Part Ways

Europe just won't be the same without it, but maybe the UK has always wanted to be out on it's own.

Tomorrow The UK will vote whether to say in the European Union (Remain) or to go it alone (Leave).  The result of the vote will have an impact on financial markets, the Pound, and individuals both inside and outside the UK.  Should Britain vote to Remain in the EU it will continue to enjoy access to the common market, freedom of movement, and the power of a common government to negotiate on it's behalf.  Should Britain vote to Leave the EU it will have the freedom to make it's own choices and negotiate it's own trade deals without interference from Brussels.
A Remain vote will likely mean little will change in the UK's relationship with the EU and things will carry on much as they have before, with the UK being a major player in a large but sometimes unwieldy economic system.
The issue that I found for a Leave vote is that there really isn't any clear idea of exactly what will happen.
Should the UK leave the EU entirely it would have to negotiate a new trade deal with Europe to trade goods back and forth with the common market.  It's entirely possible that the EU won't be in a great mood and will seek to prevent other countries from leaving by stalling negotiations or giving the UK unfavorable terms.  Should tariff barriers come up between the two the UK will see increases in prices of imported goods simply because of new taxes on the imports.  However the UK could use that money from the duties/tariff's to improve public services, so there may be an up and down side to that argument.
Also there is the issue of free movement of workers, which currently allows workers to live and work in any EU country including the UK.  Would those workers now have to return to their countries of origin? both UK citizens in say Germany and French citizens in the UK?  Various sources I consulted suggested that there were around 1 million British citizens living in other EU countries and a similar number of EU citizens living in the UK.  Mass deportations are unlikely however they are favoured by some groups, they would likely be part of future negotiations on the status of the EU-UK relationship as the separation progresses, however moving millions of people would be at best a logistical nightmare.

In the end it's up to the citizens of the UK to decide what they want and hopefully whatever decision they make will work out best for everyone.  But with polls running neck and neck on the final day it seems likely that many people in the UK will not be happy with the outcome.

EPCOR and the Grab for Drainage

EPCOR, The wholly owned subsidiary of the City of Edmonton, which currently runs power and water in the Edmonton area is now seeking to further tighten it's grip on the city's infrastructure by taking over it's drainage department.  The city has recently agreed to allow EPCOR to pay a consultant to determine if the transfer of the drainage department to EPCOR would be a good idea.  From the information provided at the council meeting it seems that the city would get a $20 million boost in the dividend it receives from EPCOR and also benefit from EPCOR taking over the drainage departments debt.  What is odd is that in all the documentation I could find on this idea there seemed to be no direct benefit to EPCOR other than having more city infrastructure under it's thumb.  The thing about the earlier mentioned study is that while council wasn't totally happy with the idea, they figured since EPCOR was paying for the study there wasn't any harm in letting it go ahead.  Something to think about is where is that $200,000 coming from to fund the study?  Since money doesn't come from nowhere, it'll be paid for by ratepayers in their water and power rates, pennies on the dollar to be sure but it'll be there somewhere.  It's too bad that the councilors voted to let EPCOR study the issue, if they reject the study the money will already be spent, and they didn't seem too happy with the idea of turning over drainage anyways.

EPCOR News Release

Slow and Steady Wins the Transit Race?

In the wake of the very, very delayed Metro Line LRT project, We have now learned that the newer and grander Edmonton Transit Valley Line, Will travel as slow as 30 Km/hr, (Global News Story about slow LRT).  It feels like every time Edmonton tries to get more people to use transit, or provides a new way for people to get around that they just can't quite deliver.  This project was supposed to be a shining beacon of great P3 (public, private, partnership) transit and a great way to get from Millwoods into the heart of downtown.  Now I wonder if anyone will take it if it has to go so slow.....  Hopefully the City of Edmonton can find a solution to this otherwise..  the train may look more like this....

Anyways, I'm a big believer is good transit, and especially fond of LRT and train service.  I just hope that city council can see their way to making sure this isn't the Turtle Train and ensure that it is actually a rapid transit solution that will get people out of their cars and using transit.

It's been a long time....

I'm going to try to restart my blog and try to publish a short musing every week.  We'll see what I come up with.  I hope to restart next week, spend the summer blogging and see where it goes from there.  My plan is to publish at least every Saturday starting from right now. Items of local interest, and photos, hopefully it will be interesting to you too.

The world isn't really imploding. Currently it's only Europe

As Greece prepares for another day of a general strike and massive protests, One wonders, Is taking the day off work and causing millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure and public buildings really a good way to show that your serious about solving a debt problem that really is created by the people.  Also is it really a good move to just go out and take a break when the government is considering massive public sector layoffs.  If you're not coming to work it may just make that job a whole lot easier.  It's strange to see people suggesting that the "Government" is making the cuts and bowing to pressure, especially when the people are the ones that put the very very spendy governments in place to begin with.  It's hard to imagine too that Greece and other European governments got to this point all of a sudden, cause the world of trouble they find themselves in doesn't really come about overnight. Sure 5 years ago creative solutions like job sharing and adjusting benefit shares could have been done but at this point there's no time for that and it's not like the public sector unions would listen anyways.  Oh yeah and Italy's next so hold on to your Riot Shields it's going to be a bumpy few years.

Jack Layton

I remember watching the winding down of the last election and seeing the camera on CBC of the inside of Jack Layton's Hotel room headquarters where he was watching the numbers roll in. Some time after it had become clear that he would gain a respectable second place the phone rang and he answered it with something to the effect of, Her Majesties Loyal Opposition. It was a candid and funny moment that characterized how many Canadians felt about Jack. They felt he was the kind of person they could sit down with, have a joke or chat with and he would listen and do something for their concerns. Jack Layton was a man who stood for his principles and stood for what he believed in, a quality often lost on politicians. It is a true shame that he never really got his chance to steer the course of the country, to lead us to a fairer and better Canada. He will be missed.

HP Touchpad Dead

Well one thing is certain no amount of advertising can replace the fact that your product isn't an i-pad. You can work as hard as you like and it still won't matter because all people are talking about is what color the new i-pad will be and what features the currently unannounced product will have. It's just hard to compete when your competitor's product has taken on a life of its own.  Of course HP and others got caught flat footed and still were only trying to catch up when the axe fell.  So long Touchpad, you made a valiant attempt to slay the dragon and failed. Will anyone else take up the challenge?  Can anyone sell a tablet that can beat the i-pad on price and features? Or will the also ran parade continue?

A Wakeup Call for the US? or Just another chance to press the snooze button?

It seems like the US is trying to blame everyone else for it's problem.  If American politicians could solve their debt problem with the same passion and vigor that they attacked the downgrade of American debt, there wouldn't be a debt problem. The basic answer is that American politicians are attacking the S&P because it's put the spotlight on them.  S&P has said it's not about the short term ability for the US to pay it's debts,  it's about the US ability to, in the long term, solve it's dependence on borrowing money.



One thing that has come out of all this is that S&P has been criticized for getting it wrong on subprime mortgages before when they rated them as AAA right up to the very end.  I guess I would say that maybe they're just being more realistic now and rating things as they see them rather than getting caught up in the hysteria or excitement of the moment as they did in the past.

Of course it's not as if the S&P is the only one calling the US government on the carpet for it's dependence on debt.  China, the US's largest creditor, has also criticized the US dependence on debt.  While the S&P downgrade is a problem, one would wonder what would happen if China suddenly pulled the plug and showed up to collect?

The American Peso?

I have nothing against the Peso of other countries such as Mexico and the Philippines but if the US doesn't get it's act together the US Dollar isn't going to be valuable enough to buy 1 of either.  While the US is in an ideological game of chicken, the value of it's currency is slipping away.  It seems obvious to the American public that both raising taxes and cutting spending is necessary but all of this is lost on the Republicans and Democrats as they try to stake their positions and prepare to get elected again in 2012.  Though what will be left to get elected to lead is hard to imagine if this doesn't get sorted out. While they talk again and again about an August 2nd deadline the world has already given up.  Right now traders a fleeing the dollar like so many rats leaving a sinking ship raising the price of gold and driving up other currencies like the Canadian dollar.  As this flight from the US Dollar accelerates it may not matter whether a solution on the "debt crisis" is found or not. By the end the dollar might be worthless and inflation might already be accelerating to a point where the US economy can never recover.

Of Course failing to find a solution to the debt crisis is unthinkable.  If a solution is not found social security checks won't go out, soldiers won't be paid and millions across the country will be out of work as hundreds of federal agencies will be forced to close. 

The suggestion that this is all just "an American Problem" is pure fiction.  If the American economy sinks the rest of the world is going to go down with the ship.

Shaw delays wireless launch

CBC News - Calgary - Shaw delays wireless launch

Shaw is delaying the launch of their wireless product by 3 months. Unfortunately that means you still have a year to wait till you can ditch your current provider for another. Shaw still hasn't announced much detail on it's wireless network such as coverage, plans or the type of hardware it will be supporting. So it's difficult to know how much you would be able to save with a switch but it will likely be just enough to temp customers away from rival carriers. The one advantage of being last to market is that you get to see everyone else's hands. It's like being the last person on the price is right you can say 1$ or 1001$ to allow you to sneak in an poach someone else's bid.

An Evening Walk

A walk is something that is more difficult than sitting in front of the tv, however it can be more relaxing.  There is something nice about a walk on a crisp fall evening.  You get to experience the sunset and see the leaves falling from the trees.  You can see people finishing up their yard work for the year and getting ready for a long winter to set in.  Sometimes we miss out on the opportunities to take a walk, get outside and experience the world though something other than a computer or a tv.

Sportsnet One

Yay, finally Canucks, Flames and Oilers fans will be able to see their Team on Sportsnet One this year, (provided they live in the right market of course) as Shaw has picked up the channel.  Oh yeah and Blue Jays fans, if there are any left, will also be able to watch their team. It is hard to know whether any other companies will pick up the channel or how much Shaw will charge for the channel once the free preview is over on October 3rd, but for the moment anyways, balance has been restored to the world.  The Channel is on 225 in HD and channel 159 in SD on Shaw Cable in Edmonton, Vancouver and Calgary with other cities arriving shortly.

Developers and poorly worded documentation

Today I found out that even reading the fine print doesn't always matter.  The developer for my area apparently has a thing against cedar trees and rather than list this type of tree in the list of unacceptable trees it assumes that every tree that looks like disallowed tree (a Juniper) will be recognized as not allowed.  I complained about this oversight and was provided with documentation from other areas saying that Junipers and Cedars are really just bushes.  I complained some more and was provided with a "well not much we can do" look. So now i have a week to find and plant a different type of tree and find a place to put my cedar, which can go in the yard but is not acceptable as my landscape tree.

Call in sick go to Jail

The above link is to a BBC story about a Police officer in the UK who repeatedly called in sick when his second job performing weddings conflicted with his police job. He has been sentenced to 9 months in jail for calling in sick when he was actually fine and working his second job. Let that be a lesson to you call in sick do hard time.

The Weather

Yeah that's right in great Canadian tradition I'm going to talk about the weather. It's often suggested that if the weather wasn't so bad or variable that Canadians would have nothing to talk about. People from other countries often can't understand our obsession with weather. In Japan stocks scroll across the bottom of peoples tv screens, in the US it's sports scores, here it's almost always weather. Here the weather has been very cold for the past month. but now it's going to change to +5 which will be really nice. however we can count on February to be a month of cold days. It's not really that we complain about the weather we just discuss it and talk about how we survived it like a group of old men at a bar sharing war stories. Statements like that's nothing you should have seen the pile of snow in my front yard are common and the oneupmanship can be crazy. However the long dark winter does make summer all that much better so that's at least one positive.

Excessive Idling Bylaw

So after months of work and public meetings the City of Edmonton finally got together an excessive idling bylaw. The bylaw has plans to limit idling to 3 minutes in temperatures above minus 10 and to use public reports to catch violators. However after some debate the city has decided that it will opt for education over enforcement and shelve the bylaw for the forseeable future. I guess we'll continue to see the parking lots full of empty vehicles all chugging away so that drivers don't have to get into a chilly car.

President Obama

Well I know it's a little late to be noting this, cause seriously you'd have to be living in a cave to not know this. Anyways Obama will become US president January 20th and it looks like Hillary Clinton will be his Secretary of State. It's a good choice for him as having Clinton as Secretary of State will keep disappointed Democrats happyish, and should help to deflect some criticism of Obamas lack of experience with foreign affairs. It will be interesting to see how Obama handles the current economic situation, it's certainly going to be tough to implement some of his plans but if he's sucessful at steering the country out of the recession then he may earn a place along with F.D.R. and other great leaders. However if the economic crisis deepens Obama may be blamed for not fixing something that he didn't break.