Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Brexit: Should The UK and the EU Part Ways

Europe just won't be the same without it, but maybe the UK has always wanted to be out on it's own.
Tomorrow The UK will vote whether to say in the European Union (Remain) or to go it alone (Leave).  The result of the vote will have an impact on financial markets, the Pound, and individuals both inside and outside the UK.  Should Britain vote to Remain in the EU it will continue to enjoy access to the common market, freedom of movement, and the power of a common government to negotiate on it's behalf.  Should Britain vote to Leave the EU it will have the freedom to make it's own choices and negotiate it's own trade deals without interference from Brussels.
A Remain vote will likely mean little will change in the UK's relationship with the EU and things will carry on much as they have before, with the UK being a major player in a large but sometimes unwieldy economic system.
The issue that I found for a Leave vote is that there really isn't any clear idea of exactly what will happen.
Should the UK leave the EU entirely it would have to negotiate a new trade deal with Europe to trade goods back and forth with the common market.  It's entirely possible that the EU won't be in a great mood and will seek to prevent other countries from leaving by stalling negotiations or giving the UK unfavorable terms.  Should tariff barriers come up between the two the UK will see increases in prices of imported goods simply because of new taxes on the imports.  However the UK could use that money from the duties/tariff's to improve public services, so there may be an up and down side to that argument.
Also there is the issue of free movement of workers, which currently allows workers to live and work in any EU country including the UK.  Would those workers now have to return to their countries of origin? both UK citizens in say Germany and French citizens in the UK?  Various sources I consulted suggested that there were around 1 million British citizens living in other EU countries and a similar number of EU citizens living in the UK.  Mass deportations are unlikely however they are favoured by some groups, they would likely be part of future negotiations on the status of the EU-UK relationship as the separation progresses, however moving millions of people would be at best a logistical nightmare.

In the end it's up to the citizens of the UK to decide what they want and hopefully whatever decision they make will work out best for everyone.  But with polls running neck and neck on the final day it seems likely that many people in the UK will not be happy with the outcome.

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